Our modeling and historical pricing data, derived from sources deemed reliable, support three calculations as follows: (A) Strictly by buying and holding Bitcoin, a hypothetical investor could have turned a $1,000 investment into $100,744,000, or nearly $101 million. (B) With the “buy” and “sell” signals issued by our Crypto Timing Model, that same investor could have turned the $1,000 Bitcoin investment into $1,487,024,150, or nearly $1.5 billion. (C) Thus, our Crypto Timing Model could have amplified the results of a Bitcoin buy-and-hold strategy by a factor of 14.76 to one.

The above calculations are based on the following assumptions: (1) Strictly medium-term trades involving the simple purchase and sale of Bitcoin. (2) No other cryptocurrencies and no short selling, day trading, use of leverage, debt, options, spread trades or other complex strategies. (3) A historical period beginning July 18, 2010 and ending January 22, 2020. (4) All signals automatically generated exclusively by our Crypto Timing Model with no manual intervention by analysts beyond the original construction of the model. (5) Model based almost exclusively on cycles, including not only the 4-year Halving cycle, but also regular cycles we have identified with average durations of approximately 20 days, 80 days, and 320 days. (6) Hypothetical investor follows all signals faithfully and executes each one at the closing price of the same day. Update: Since January 22, 2020, the end date of the study, the price of Bitcoin has risen and the above-cited numbers are even larger. 

We made every effort not to use 20-20 hindsight to create our Crypto Timing Model. Moreover, we did not choose the trading model with the highest return. Rather, we selected the trading approach that’s the easiest to follow, while providing what we believe to be the best balance of profit potential and reduced risk. Due to its longer history, the model results are estimated based exclusively on Bitcoin. However, we have also successfully applied it to other cryptocurrencies where we believe the profit opportunities are greater.

The Bitcoin market is more liquid, secure and accessible to investors than it was in the early 2010s. However, those benefits come with a cost: Bitcoin is trading at much higher price levels than ten years ago. Therefore, if you buy Bitcoin today, you must not expect to achieve the kind of results achievable by investors who began buying Bitcoin for a pittance. Instead, we recommend you focus primarily on the 14.76x outperformance of our Crypto Timing Model compared to a Bitcoin buy-and-hold strategy. At the same time, investors should recognize that the profit potential in other leading cryptocurrencies, such as those meriting the highest cryptocurrency ratings, could be significantly larger.

You should also recognize that backtesting based on historical data has several limitations. For example, it does not include transaction fees or taxes. It does not account for the fact that investors don’t always get the prices they expect. Nor is it possible to completely eliminate the benefit of hindsight.

On March 1, 2018, founder Martin D. Weiss opened a personal account with $100,000 to follow all recommendations made in the Weiss Cryptocurrency Portfolio service with a delay. During the first two years of WCP, trading was based primarily on the Weiss Crypto Ratings, without the benefit of the Crypto Timing Model, which was not computerized until year-end 2019. In the cryptocurrency bear market of 2018, Dr. Weiss’s portfolio lost money, but successfully preserved most capital. Thus, between Mar. 1, 2018 and Dec. 15, 2018 (the day Bitcoin reached its lowest level of the year), Dr. Weiss’s portfolio outperformed an average of the 50 top cryptocurrencies by 37.4 percentage points. From the Bitcoin low at Dec. 15, 2018 through August 26, 2020, nearly all digital assets in Dr. Weiss’s portfolio enjoyed very substantial gains.. Subscribers should be aware that there are two key differences between Dr. Weiss’s personal portfolio and the Weiss Cryptocurrency Portfolio (WCP) performance data cited above: (1) His personal portfolio began in March 2018, while our Crypto Timing Model’s performance is calculated based on backtesting of historical data from July 2010. (2) His personal portfolio can often be at a disadvantage due to its self-imposed delay in executing trades.

Weiss Ratings does not accept any form of compensation from creators, issuers or sponsors of cryptocurrencies. Nor are the Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings intended to endorse or promote any specific cryptocurrency. We stand ready to give you the tech support you may need to open cryptocurrency accounts and navigate the needed websites, but we do not provide customized advice that’s tailored to your individual circumstances.

Cryptocurrencies carry a high degree of risk. The SEC, CFTC and other regulators have expressed concerns with the volatility of the market and the actions of sponsors of specific cryptocurrencies. So be sure to review their official consumer alerts, especially the SEC’s “Statement on Cryptocurrencies and Initial Coin Offerings” as well as the CFTC’s “Customer Advisory: Beware Virtual Currency Pump-and-Dump Schemes.” Data date: 8/19/2020. Since that time, the values of the cryptocurrencies cited in this report have risen further, but we do not believe those price changes have altered the validity of our arguments or the magnitude of the potential opportunity.

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